GaGa Lite Presents: Ichiro Posted by The Duke of GaGa |

Ichiro is a baseball player who defies projections. In fact, DMZ at USSMariner wrote an article in the 2010 Mariners Annual discussing how unique Ichiro really is: Bill James' system compares Ichiro to 10 players, 5 of whom played in the period from 1898-1935, with only two, Shannon Stewart and Mickey Rivers, playing in the past half century. Meanwhile, DMZ notes that PECOTA has consistently predicted declines for Ichiro, with a 2009 prediction of .295/.340/.379 (he actually hit .352/.386/.465) and a 2010 prediction of .322/.375/.426. This isn't to pick on PECOTA, as CHONE has him at .311/.344/.408, Bill James says he will slash .319/.365/.407, and Marcel says Ichiro will go .319/.365/.418. DMZ scoffs at these computer systems, and the punchline to his article is that he doesn't see Ichiro slowing down at all in the near future.

Ichiro thus presents a critique of PECOTA, CHONE, Bill James and Marcel. If they consistently predict declines for Ichiro, and he consistently outperforms these predictions, then perhaps we need a new system. This is where GaGa Projections comes in: GaGa Lite does Ichiro! First we have to admit that Ichiro Suzuki is the best dressed 8-bit, Nintendo-based character we have ever seen. In an informal poll, Ichiro beat our Mario, Link, and the Mage from Final Fantasy in both looks and style.

Moving on to baseball, GaGa Lite sees the 2010 version of Ichiro hitting .400/.423/.720. Yes, you heard that right, .400/.423/.720. This may seem high for a player who "only" managed .352/.385/.465 last year and whose career triple slash is .333/.378/.434, but we know our system is right. The computer based systems are highly complex, taking in a number of variables and embarking on the kind of math equations that make string theorists nervous. But, our system is equally complex: we take a weighted average of the past 4 years, then we weigh their college, high school, middle school and Little League performances. We adjust for height, weight, social security number, date of birth and mother's maiden name. And finally, we add in ingredients X and Y, heart and state of mind. What GaGa Projections understands is that Ichiro has spent a number of years playing on bad teams and has become bored. The 2010 season will be different because Ichiro will be un-bored, that the combination of tickles from Griffey, watching King Felix and Cliff Lee pitch, great summer weather and a possible trip to the postseason will energize Ichiro to take it to a whole new level. A lot of people love Ichiro: his parents, his wife, his dog, his teammates, Mariners fans, baseball fans more generally, the Mariners blogosphere...the list goes on. But it's safe to say that out of all these people, GaGa Lite loves Ichiro the most. Who else has the balls say, on the record, that Ichiro will hit .400?

Here's a little video primer to tantalize you as to what Ichiro could do this year, our favorite is his home run at the 52 second mark: